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Its Impact Worldwide For centuries, a slight abnormal warming off the coast of Peru seemed to occur in periods of 2-7 years. Peruvians dubbed this initially local event "El Niņo," the Spanish term for Christ Child, since its effects peaked during the "merry" season of Christmas. Weather scientists never paid much attention to the phenomenon until the early 70'S when the collapse of the lucrative anchovy industry in Peru coincided with disruptions in crop production in other agricultural countries. Even then, the effects of the El Niņo, although by then considered a global phenomenon, were largely manageable. It wasn't until the 1982-83 event that scientists and governments gave El Niņo the attention it deserved because of the devastation it wreaked worldwide. This particularly strong episode left in its wake, 2000 dead and 13 billion US dollars lost in crops and other industries across the globe. In
the last decade, scientists have been voicing concern over the apparent
increasing frequency El Niņo is associated with extreme climatic variability. It is actually the invasion from time to time of warm sea surface water from the western equatorial Pacific Basin to the eastern equatorial region along the coast of Peru and Equador. The phenomenon can prevail for more than a year and causes anomalous atmospheric circulation that results in heavy rains or strong winds in some areas and abnormal dry condition on others. Thus, beyond the jargon of weather forecasters, the bottom line to all of this is that the El Niņo warming episode brings drought to some areas in the world and floods to others. The abnormal warming of the equatorial Pacific is closely related to a global atmospheric anomaly called the Southern Oscillation that disrupts patterns of tropical precipitation. The phenomenon usually occurs every 2-7 years and is interspersed with a reverse phenomenon known as La Niņa. The causes of these phenomena are yet to be confirmed (Source. PAGASA). The irregularities in climates around the globe can result in crippling environmental, as well as socio-economic impacts. The anticipated prolonged dry spell may end in desert-like conditions and uncontrollable forest fires. Water shortages will effect in staggering losses in agriculture production as well as outbreaks of diseases caused by drinking water contamination. Social and economic impacts include massive migrations to urban areas, decline in productivity of industries eventually leading to unemployment and food shortages which endangers millions of lives. Better prediction of both the climate episodes and its anticipated effects can save countries billions of dollars worth in damage costs if government, and society is well informed in advance to facilitate planning of mitigating measures. Source: A United Initiative: Task Force El Niņo. The 1997-1998 Annual Report on Task Force El Niņo Phenomenon El Niņo's Impact in the Philippines The effects of this phenomenon in the Philippines have been apparent for the last 20 years. These included a number of environmental threats such as degradation of soil which could lead to desert-like conditions if persistent, effect on water quality, high forest/ grass/ bush fire risk, domestic water supply shortage; social implications such as disruption of normal human activities, migration to urban communities, human and health problems, and economic impacts such as unemployment, food shortages, significant reduction in the productivity and subsequent revenue loss of various industries, and reduced hydroelectric power generation. Past El Niņo episodes in the country incurred staggering losses in agriculture and the environment. Rainfall deficiencies resulted in competing uses for domestic water supply and production of staples such as rice and corn that are heavily dependent on water. Domestic water was being rationed out resulting in a significant reduction in productivity of industries. Deteriorating water quality induced outbreaks of diseases such as cholera and dengue. Likewise, extremely high temperatures left forests and communities highly vulnerable to fires. Drought damage to rice and corn in the 1982-83 El Niņo amounted to more than 700 million pesos from a total area of 450,000 hectares. Most severely hit provinces included Central Luzon, Southern Tagalog, Northern Visayas and Western Mindanao. The 1992-93 episode cost the Philippines 4.1 billion pesos in the agricultural sector alone; 478 thousand metric tons of corn, valued at 2.1 billion pesos was destroyed. The provinces most severely affected were South Cotabato, Isabela, Bukidnon, Maguindanao, North Cotabato, and Cagayan. In
1997-1998 episode of El Niņo, PCARRD funded assessment studies covering
30 barangays in 15 provinces nationwide to determine the impacts of El
Niņo on crop production. It was reported that for rice alone, production
losses reached 1.8 MT valued at For the fisheries sector, studies showed moderate short-term losses during El Niņo years. Total production dropped by 283,879 MT amounting to 7.248B pesos over a nine-month period (Oct. 1997-June 1998). This is equivalent to 10.2% reduction in the volume and 8.7% reduction in the value of fisheries production in 1996, a non-El Niņo year. Regions 3 and 6 were the most vulnerable during El Niņo occurrences due to their extensive areas for aquaculture and marine fisheries. Assessment on the Adverse Effects of ENSO 2002 To prepare the country, particularly the agriculture sector, the National Irrigation Administration (NIA) came up with the following assessments. They projected an average reduction of 413,289 ha of irrigated areas for the whole country. Likewise losses on yield and employment opportunity lost under a "mild" and "severe" El Niņo conditions were quantified. The Philippines' Initiative to Mitigate ENSO Impacts While it holds true that the El Niņo is a natural phenomenon, which is impossible to prevent, numerous measures may be undertaken to mitigate the inevitable effects. In the 1982-83 El Niņo episode, the Philippine government responded with each agency formulating its own action plan to minimize the losses. This fragmented approach did not fare well as evidenced by the extensive losses incurred. In 1997-98 episode of ENSO, it was recognized that the effects on agriculture, environment, domestic water supply, health and energy are inherently inter-related, hence a more coordinated approach is very necessary. As such, on the 23rd of September 1997, President Fidel V. Ramos issued a memorandum creating the Task Force on El Niņo composed of various concerned government agencies. For the first time, the Philippines was able to bring together the plans and programs of the different government agencies into one comprehensive action plan in accordance with strategic programs to help the public cope with the phenomenon and minimize its disastrous effects. The Task Force was jointly headed by the Secretaries of the Departments of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), and Agriculture (DA), with the following member agencies: National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC); Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC); Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG); Department of Energy (DOE); Department of Science and Technology (DOST); Presidential Management Staff (PMS); National Irrigation Administration (NIA); Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services; Administration (PAGASA) and; Philippine Crop Insurance Company (PCIC). Likewise, other concerned agencies like the Philippine Information Agency, and various local government units played an indispensable role in the successful implementation of the Task Force programs. With the predicted occurrence of El Niņo in 2002 until next year, the government reactivated and strengthened the Task Force El Niņo through Presidential Executive Order No. 16 dated May 18, 2001. The new task force is composed of the secretaries of DA as chair, DOST, DILG, DENR, DOE, DOT, Director of PAGASA, Director-General of PIA, Department of National Defense (DND), Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH), Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), Department of Health (DOH), Department of Education, Culture and Sports (DECS), Chairman of the National Commission for Indigenous People and two representatives of the Civil Society. The Task Force had mapped out strategies for two 2002 ENSO scenarios: mild and severe conditions. Under "mild" El Niņo, rainfall will be 10 to 20% below normal level and about 22 provinces in 7 regions in the country will be affected. For "severe" El Niņ0, rainfall will be more than 20% below normal and about 43 provinces in 13 regions of the country will be affected. The vulnerability of the different areas in the country is shown in a vulnerability map. For the agriculture sector, vulnerability scenario for crops, livestock and fisheries is shown in Table 1. Because of this, the government has undertaken the following activities:
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of the El Niņo. The early 90's saw a row of El Niņo episodes, spaced dangerously
close together. This 1997-98 El Niņo is by far the most closely watched
by scientists and policymakers alike as speculations of the relationship
between the periodic warming and overall global warming crop up. As mountains
of data from satellites, ships and stationary buoys accumulate in laboratories
and universities, small farmers and fishermen try to cope with the devastating
effects on their income of this, "The El Niņo of the Century."
